We’re back with another WNBA betting preview, and this time we’re going to split the Atlanta Dream versus the Connecticut Sun. Atlanta is 7-6 in the year, but can it handle the stifling defense of the Connecticut home? Find out in our choices and expectations.
The Atlanta Dream is back on the road after a five-day break visiting the Connecticut Sun, the biggest team in the Eastern Conference, on Wednesday.
Atlanta dropped two games on the road west last week, but had a good chunk of time to rest and prepare for a Connecticut team that hit 10-4 consecutive marks in this contest. However, Connecticut State came out on the losing side, and while it has yet to play for Atlanta this year, it has won all three games in 2021.
Here are WNBA free picks and predictions for Dream vs. Sun on June 15.
The odds of a dream versus the sun
Odds via Covers Line, an average consisting of odds from many sports bets.
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Dream predictions vs the sun
The predictions were made on 6/15/2022 at 10:20 AM ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.
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Dream information vs the sun
• Site: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Wednesday 15 June 2022
• warning: 7:00 p.m. Eastern time
• Television: NESN +, Bally Sports Southeast
Dream vs Sun betting preview
Dream: Erica Wheeler G (out), Tiffany Hayes G (out).
Sun: Jasmine Thomas J (outside).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting direction to know
Connecticut has passed 7-15 years/less in its last 22 homestead suites. find more WNBA Betting Trends For Dream vs.
Dream vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of streak and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite across all markets.
The Sun kicked the tires over its title chances in a major conference encounter with defending champion Chicago Sky on Friday, and fell short of expectations in a 83-79 loss as the home favorite’s 6.5 points. The Connecticut team had won four straight games prior to that defeat and had a long break from work to rest before a very busy end to June.
Dream will test those legs, play at a faster pace and run a surround attack. Atlanta has the third-fastest tempo in the WNBA and is trying to stretch its opponents with most of the offensive action happening away from the basket.
This is in contrast to Connecticut’s game plan, which relies on its size on the inside to put in roughly 39 points in the paint for each game, smashing offensive glass for plenty of handicaps and second-chance scoring chances. Sun tops the WNBA with 27.1 field goal attempts five feet from the basket and will truly put Dream’s #1 ranked defense to the test.
Running through the previous Atlanta rounds, we see a team that has battled some of the league’s weakest clubs but can’t get over the hump versus the elite.
Dream’s seven wins this year against enemies came with a record 23-48 and none of these competitors currently have a winning record, including three wins over Indiana Fever (4-12). Five of Atlanta’s six losses (1-5 ATS) came against Seattle, Chicago, Washington and Las Vegas, and the team has a poor average margin of -13.6 points in those defeats.
prediction: Sun -9.5 (-110 in PointsBet)
Covers basketball betting analysis
Over / Under Analysis
Connecticut would attack the interior, score buckets at a high rate, and force Atlanta into the ball for the greater part of the property, thus slowing the pace of the game and eventually weakening Atlanta’s weaker side.
While Dream’s defensive numbers might be a little bloated due to the level of competition so far, Atlanta is working hard to that end and is great at winning a hustle and bustle and quick in defense to assist. It allows for the lowest in the league with 26.2 points in the paint and 8.8 second-chance points with fewer than eight offensive rebounds given up per night.
As for their crime, the dream does not travel that well. They average only 75 points per away game (the second lowest) with less than 42% shot success, and in those encounters with stronger enemies, Dream only gets 64.8 points. Atlanta comes off one of its best-scoring nights as a visitor in Friday’s loss to Phoenix (losing 90-88 and shooting 47%) but Mercury is among the lower tier defenses in the WNBA.
Locked within the Mohegan Sun Arena, The Sun features an Advanced Defensive rating of 94.9 (third best in the house) and allows enemies to only score 74.4 points for 42% success from the ground, including a 30.7% suffocation rate from distance. Going back to last season, Connecticut State has topped 7-15 years/lower in its last 22 home wards.
prediction: under 155.5 (-110 in PointsBet)
Sun has a total of 82.5 points tonight against the highest-rated defense against him. However, as mentioned earlier, Dream’s defensive stats are padded against some lower quality teams.
Connecticut averaged more than 87 points per season — and although it only managed 79 in a loss to Chicago last time around — it has scored 83 or more points in each of its previous four games. Not only must the sun make its way in, but once the dream crumbles into the paint, Connecticut can bury enemies with powerful fire from outside the arc (WNBA 36.4% best).
But what will make Connecticut out of the top is its ability to turn defense into attack. The Sun is the best team in the East at making cuts (16.7 per game) and translating those fouls into easy points (the league’s highest at 21.2 turnovers).
Atlanta, on the other hand, coughs the ball the highest in the league 17.7 times per game and has a checkered backcourt with a loss Erica Wheeler and the new addition of Asia Durr. Dream only made five turnovers on Friday but 15 and 22 in the previous two games.
It all adds up to a lot of additional property for a stronger home.
pick or pick: Total sun team over 82.5 (-108 in FanDuel)
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